Large areas of the West Country’s coastline – including Stert Island and low-lying land around Burnham – could disappear into the sea within 50 years, a leading scientist has warned this week.
Homes, farmland, harbours and railways could be lost as sea levels rise by 60cm and temperatures increase by half a degree Celsius within two generations, claimed Chris Turney, a geologist, archaeologist and climatologist at the University of Exeter.
Prof Turney estimates the rise in sea levels could lead to a dramatic change in weather patterns, causing frequent fierce storms that will, in turn, speed up coastal erosion.
“Everyone living on the coast is vulnerable. The problem is that people are sleep-walking into this disaster,” he said.
His predicted rise in sea levels is three times higher than the most conservative estimates from the Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change, the leading body of scientists advising governments on climate change.
Prof Turney told the Western Morning News newspaper: “Future predictions are actually more alarmist than previously thought by the IPCC. Its estimates of a 20cm rise in sea levels by the end of the century have been shown to be unrealistic. It could be as high as a metre-and-a-half rise.”
“My predictions of half-a-metre rise in sea levels over the next 50 years may not sound a lot but it’s not just the sea levels which will rise. The wind patterns and sea currents will change. Coastal erosion will get worse.”
Prof Turney came to his conclusions while researching his latest book Ice, Mud and Blood: Lessons from Climates Past.
Mike Dunning, a South West spokesman for the Environment Agency, said a contingency plan had been put in place to deal with rising sea levels. He added: “Our plan allows for a 5mm rise in sea levels a year.”
“Some areas will be abandoned to the sea like the Steart Peninsula near Bridgwater. Others, especially along the rivers Exe and Teign, could be at greater risk of flooding so we’ll be looking at all options.”
Fellow Westcountry climate change expert Roland Gehrels, from the University of Plymouth’s Physical Geography department, agreed with Prof Turney that the IPCC’s estimates are unrealistic.
But he said his colleague’s predictions were too catastrophic. “The Westcountry can sustain a one-metre rise in sea levels. But it’s the impact big storms will have which is worrying. That would get much worse.”
Prof Gehrels said the Somerset Levels would be most at risk of a rise in sea levels.
Our photos show storm waves hitting Burnham in March this year
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Huge buoy washed up on Burnham beach as storms hit
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